As expected, President Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented, historic third term last month. The recently-concluded 20^th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) elected Mr Jinping for the third term as General Secretary of the CPC and president of China. The re-election was unprecedented and historic because Mr Jinping, 69, is the only Chinese leader after Mao Zedong, the founder of Communist China, to get the third term. After Mao and until now, the Chinese president’s tenure was restricted to two terms of five years each.

Hu Jintao, Mr Jinping’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Le Keqiang and former Vice-Premier Wang Yang were unceremoniously shown the door. These reform-minded leaders were instead replaced by Mr Jinping’s loyalists. Mr Jintao, who was seated next to Mr Jinping, was especially guided out of the head table to the glare of the global media. This was purposefully choreographed to display Mr Jinping’s unshakable clout in the CPC.

Mr Jinping’s third term implies continuity of the prevailing policies. There would be an aggressive expansionism policy with heightened tension in Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Asia-Pacific region. Russia’s reversals in Ukraine may fortunately make China pragmatic and prevent it from escalating crises in the neighbourhood. However, China is most likely to continue building up pressure on Japan, Australia and the US. Nearer home, China will continue to interfere in Ladakh and Aurnachal Pradesh.

Mr Jinping’s continuation at the helm of affairs spells doom for both Chinese and global economies. His third term is particularly bad for the world which is still coming to terms with high inflation and rising interest rates. The Chinese president’s obsession with zero-COVID cases has led him to impose insanely-stringent measures, such as frequent lockdowns. These steps have led to shutdown of factories, which have badly battered the country’s manufacturing and export sectors.

Besides, a crackdown on technology companies, private tutoring entities, gaming and cosmetics industry is hurting the sectors that have been contributing immensely to the country’s GDP. These tough measures have also shaken investors’ confidence, leading to many foreign investors moving out of China. The ongoing meltdown of the Chinese banking system and its real estate sector is complicating matters further.

Mr Jinping’s third term is unlikely to be very different from his second one when it comes to India. The biggest dent for India has been the phenomenal rise in bilateral trade, tilting completely in favour of China. Just how bad the situation is on the trade front can be gauged by a quick glance at the trade figures during Mr Jinping’s past two terms. India’s trade deficit with China has surged to a record high from $38.7 billion in FY13 to $73.3 billion in FY22. 

Meanwhile, some analysts point out that a crisis-hit China is a boon for India. The world is keen on exploring the China-Plus-One Strategy, where investors look for destinations other than China to diversify their investments. These analysts stress that India can be one of the alternative destinations.

Theoretically, India can easily fit into the world’s China-Plus-One Strategy. But reality, alas, is quite dismal. India is quite an insignificant player in the global value chain, accounting for a mere 1.3 per cent of the world’s value chain. Moreover, India’s overdependence on China for many vital products – ranging from electronic gadgets to mobile phones and active pharmaceutical ingredients – has turned Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and Vocal For Local campaign into empty slogans.

But there is still hope amid despair. India should slowly, surely, and most importantly, silently begin its journey towards self-reliance. The results will certainly materialise over time but never overnight.