October retail inflation set to be less than 7%, predicts RBI Governor Das

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Saturday said that there was no need to change the inflation target despite the central bank’s failure to keep it below the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for nine consecutive months. Mr Das exuded confidence that the October print would be less than 7 per cent. 

Inflation has been trending above the RBI’s upper tolerance level of 6 per cent since January this year. 

The RBI Act mandates that in the case of the inflation target not being met for three consecutive quarters, the central bank has to submit a report to the government, explaining the reasons, and detail the remedial actions it will be taking to check the price rise. 

Earlier this month, a special meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was held to finalise the report, explaining the reasons for missing the inflation target for three quarters. 

This was the first time since the onset of the Monetary Policy Framework, which came into effect in 2016, that the RBI explained its actions in a report to the government. 

Speaking at the HT Leadership Summit on Saturday, Mr Das said that there was no need to change the goal post for inflation targeting as higher than 6 per cent inflation would hurt growth. 

According to the mandate given to the RBI by the Union government, the central bank is required to ensure that retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. 

Retail inflation data for October 2022 will be released on November 14 at 5.30 pm.

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