ECONOMY

Amid global uncertainties, RBI set to continue battle against inflation in 2023

After remaining above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort level of 6 per cent for most part of this year, retail inflation is slowly easing, and efforts are likely to continue to further reduce it in the coming months amid global uncertainties.

High prices of crude and edible oils, pulses and vegetables were among the main factors behind the high inflation during the year. This trend came against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict that started in February and disrupted the global supply chain and pushed higher prices of many commodities.

Since May, the RBI has hiked the short-term lending rate (Repo Rate) by 2.25 percentage points, taking it to a nearly three-year high of 6.25 per cent.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation had crossed the RBI’s comfort level of 6 per cent in January itself, and thereafter, it remained elevated for nine months before slipping to 5.88 per cent in October.

An RBI paper, Anatomy of Inflation’s Ascent in India, said: “The initial inflationary pressure was delivered by successive supply shocks, but as their impact waned, a revenge rebound in spending and especially a swing from goods to contact-intensive services is generalising price pressures and making them persistent.”

Recently, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had said that uncertainties surrounding the inflation trajectory were sizable, given the geopolitical tensions, global financial market volatility, pending pass-through of input costs to domestic output prices and weather-related disruptions.

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