COVID-19 will have a lasting impact on labour markets, and as many as 1.8 crore Indian workers will be forced to switch to a newer occupation by 2030 because of the pandemic, reveals a report by McKinsey Global Institute, a leading global think-tank.  

The impact will be “disproportionately” felt on low-wage workers in retail, food services, hospitality and office administration, the report adds. The report identifies the lasting impact of COVID-19 on labour demand, the mix of occupations and workforce skills required in eight countries, including India. 

Three broad changes in consumer behaviour and business models will persist to varying degrees because of the pandemic which include the rise of remote work, the increased embrace of e-commerce and virtual interactions and the more rapid deployment of automation and artificial intelligence (AI), the think-tank notes in the report. 

These changes will lead to a reshuffling of jobs in the economy over a decade, and over 10 crore workers will have to find a new job, with 1.8 crore of those will be in India itself. The impact on India has been minimised because between 35 to 55 per cent of the country’s workforce depends on what is classified as the outdoor production and maintenance arena, which includes construction sites, farms, residential and commercial grounds and other outdoor spaces.

The long-term effects of the virus may reduce the number of low-wage jobs available, which previously served as a safety net for displaced workers. These workers will need to prepare themselves to find work in occupations with higher wages that require more complex skills, such as jobs in healthcare, technology, teaching and training, social work and human resources, the report adds.