WORLD
China’s Q2 GDP rises by 5.2% despite Trump tariffs, doubts loom over future growth
- IBJ Bureau
- Jul 16, 2025
China’s economy grew by 5.2 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 amid ongoing trade tensions with the US, official data has showed.
The second quarter growth was slightly below the 5.4 per cent pace in the first, but keeping on track to meet the government’s full-year target of around 5 per cent.
The first-half performance was supported by State stimulus and a pause in US-China trade war escalations that allowed exporters to rush out shipments ahead of potential tariff hikes.
“China achieved growth above the official target of 5 per cent in Q2 partly because of front-loading of exports,” said Zhiwei Zhang, the chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.
Analysts, however, warn that the growth may not be sustainable. Weakened consumer confidence, falling prices and a deepening property crisis continue to weigh on demand.
“The real estate crisis remains a major medium-term drag on local government budgets,” said Dan Wang, an economist of the Eurasia Group.
Investors, meanwhile, are bracing for a weaker second half even as additional stimulus is expected to be considered at the upcoming Politburo meeting.
At the same time, according to economic research and consulting firm Prognos Institute, Chinese companies now account for 16 per cent of global exports, double that of Germany, raising the stakes in an increasingly competitive global trade landscape.
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