Leading brokerages have downgraded India’s GDP growth projections for the current financial year (2021-22) to as low as 10 per cent. The downgrades come on the back of resurgence of COVID-19 cases posing risks to economic recovery amid lockdowns and restrictions imposed by many States. 

Nomura has downgraded projections of economic growth for the financial year ending March 2022 to 12.6 per cent from 13.5 per cent earlier. JP Morgan projects GDP growth at 11 per cent from 13 per cent earlier. UBS sees 10 per cent GDP growth, down from 11.5 per cent earlier, and Citi has downgraded growth to 12 per cent. 

India’s GDP growth had been on the decline even before the pandemic struck earlier last year. From a growth rate of 8.3 per cent in FY17, the GDP expansion had dipped to 6.8 per cent and 6.5 per cent in the following two years and to 4 per cent in FY20. 

In the COVID-ravaged FY21, the economy is projected to have contracted by up to 8 per cent. The low base of FY21 was seen aiding a double-digit growth rate in the current financial year before moderating to 6.8 per cent in FY23. 

The RBI has projected FY22 GDP growth at 10.5 per cent, while IMF puts it at 12.5 per cent. The World Bank sees FY22 growth at 10.1 per cent.