Copper soared this week to an all-time high, continuing a sizzling rally that has seen prices double in the past year. Copper futures rose as high as $10,440 a tonne in London on Friday.

The previous copper record was set in 2011 around the peak of the commodities supercycle sparked by China’s rise to economic heavyweight status, fuelled by massive amounts of raw materials. This time, investors are betting that copper’s vital role in the world’s shift to green energy will mean surging demand and even higher prices.  

Through human history, copper has played a critical role in many of civilization’s greatest advances: from early monetary systems to municipal plumbing, from the rise of trains, planes and cars to the devices and networks that underpin the information age. 

The reddish-brown metal is mostly unrivalled as an electrical and thermal conductor, while also being durable and easy to work with. Today, a vast array of uses in all corners of heavy industry, construction and manufacturing mean that it is a famously-reliable indicator for trends in the global economy. 

The copper market was one of the first to react as COVID-19 emerged in Wuhan, with prices slumping by more than a quarter between January and March last year. Then as China’s unprecedented steps to control the domestic spread of the virus started to yield results, copper rapidly rebounded, and it has not looked back since. 

But it is not just China driving the rally. While the country accounts for half of the world’s copper consumption and has played an integral part in copper’s surge, demand there has actually softened this year. 

Yet prices continue to drive higher. Copper has turned expensive partly due to evidence of recoveries in other major industrial economies, with manufacturing output surging in places like the US, Germany and Japan. 

But investors have also been piling into copper on a bet that global efforts to cut carbon emissions are going to mean that the world will need a lot more of the metal, putting a strain on supply. New mine production may be slow to arrive, as mines are hard to find and expensive to develop. 

The copper market itself may also be facing a big shift. Trafigura, a leading, global, commodity trading company, predicts that demand growth in China will be eclipsed by rising consumption in the rest of the world over the coming decade in a dramatic reversal of the recent trend. That could help underpin a new “supercycle” in the copper market, driving prices higher for years on the back of a step-change in global demand.