WORLD
Analysts do not see any change in Venezuelan oil output even after Maduro’s capture
- IBJ Bureau
- Jan 04, 2026
Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to output of crude oil for years, even if US oil companies do invest the billions of dollars in the country that US President Donald Trump promised just hours following Nicolas Maduro’s capture by US forces.
The South American country may have the world’s largest estimated oil reserves, but output has plummeted over the past decades amid mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign companies after Venezuela nationalised oil operations in the 2000s that included the assets of Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.
Any companies that may want to invest there would need to deal with security concerns, dilapidated infrastructure, questions about the legality of the US operation to snatch Mr Maduro and the potential for long-term political instability, analysts have told the Reuters.
American companies will not return until they know for sure that they will be paid and will have at least a minimal amount of security, notes Mark Christian, a director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting. He also adds that the companies would not go back until sanctions against the country are removed.
Venezuela will also have to reform its laws to allow for larger investment by foreign oil companies.
Venezuela had nationalised the oil industry in the 1970s, and in the 2000s, it had ordered a forced migration to joint ventures controlled by its State oil company, PDVSA. Most companies had negotiated exits and migrated, including Chevron, while a handful of others had not reached deals and filed for arbitration.
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