ECONOMY
Economic Survey pegs GDP growth for FY26 between 6.8 and 7.2 per cent
- IBJ Bureau
- Jan 30, 2026
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2025-26 in Parliament on Thursday. The survey projected India’s economy to grow between 6.8 and 7.2 per cent in 2025-26, on the back of strong domestic demand, even as global volatility weighs on the outlook.
The Finance Ministry’s forecast in the annual Economic Survey represents a slowdown from this fiscal year’s 7.4 per cent projection.
The survey has said that the outlook for the domestic economy “is one of steady growth amid global uncertainty, requiring caution, but not pessimism”.
The government projects this year’s growth at 7.4 per cent, beating the 6.3 to 6.8 per cent range of forecast from last year’s survey.
India is now anticipating a full-year real growth rate of over 7 per cent, with another year of real growth at or near 7 per cent, the survey has said. “There is one wrinkle in the ointment, however,” notes the survey.
The paradox of 2025 is that India’s strongest macroeconomic performance in decades has collided with a global system that no longer rewards macroeconomic success with currency stability, capital inflows or strategic insulation, according to the annual document.
For India, global conditions translate into uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress. Slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions to trade and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investors’ sentiment, the report adds.
India is now the fourth-largest economy, behind the US, China and Germany. The government said last month that India had overtaken Japan to get to number four.
The weaker rupee does not hurt at a time when inflation in India is exceptionally low, but “it does cause investors to pause”, the survey said, adding that “investors’ reluctance to commit to India warrants examination”.
The Economic Survey 2025-26 was authored by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran and his team, which is separate from the group compiling the Sunday's budget.
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