Prices of rice are set to surge after top exporter India banned a large chunk of shipments recently. India’s rice ban adds to the stress on global food markets that have already been roiled by bad weather and worsening conflict in Ukraine. 

“In the short term, the price is definitely going up, it’s just a question of how high up it will go,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters’ Association, one of the world’s biggest shippers of the grain. “And it will be a spike; it’s not going to be increasing incrementally.” 

Rice is vital to the diets of billions in Asia and Africa, and a surge in prices would add to inflationary pressures and jack up the import bills for buyers. India’s restriction, which applies to shipments of non-Basmati white rice, is aimed at controlling domestic prices. The move comes as concerns escalate about the impact on farm supplies of the El Niño weather pattern, soaring temperatures in Europe and Russian attacks against Ukrainian export facilities. 

“India’s export ban needs to be seen in the light of this ominous setting,” said Peter Timmer, Professor Emeritus of Harvard University, who has studied food security for decades. “There is considerably more reason for concern now that rice prices in Asia could spiral out of control pretty quickly.” 

With Vietnam, another major rice shipper, already quoting supplies at $600 a tonne for 5 per cent white rice, Thailand may follow that, Mr Chookiat said in an interview. A jump to that level would push Thai prices to the highest since 2012, and it compares with the current level of $534 a tonne, near a two-year high. 

A surge in rice — plus the gains in wheat, corn and other agricultural commodities seen so far this month — looks set to spur a rebound in global food costs after a long run of declines. The UN’s World Food Price Index has hit the lowest since April 2021 in June following five quarterly declines.