INDUSTRY
Lower yields bring 2024-25 sugar output forecast down by 5.57% to 32.40 mt
- IBJ Bureau
- Mar 02, 2026
India’s sugar production has been revised down by 5.57 per cent of the earlier forecast to 32.40 million tonnes (mt) for the 2025-26 marketing year. Putting out the output forecast, industry body ISMA has cited lower yields in top producers, like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
The third advance estimate, released after an executive committee meeting, follows a second projection of 34.35 mt. Output last year was 29.62 mt.
After diverting 3.1 mt for ethanol, net availability will reach 29.3 mt, up from 26.12 mt in 2024-25.
Including 5 mt opening stock, the total availability of 34.3 mt exceeds domestic consumption of 28.3 mt, the ISMA has added.
The ISMA forecasts exports at 7,00,000 tonnes and closing stocks at 5.3 mt.
Net production in Maharashtra is estimated at 10.6 mt, Uttar Pradesh at 9.25 mt and Karnataka at 4.84 mt – all revised lower than the earlier estimates but above the last year’s levels.
In Uttar Pradesh, lower yields stem from a varietal replacement programme, though recovery rates have improved. Maharashtra and Karnataka have seen reduced yields from early sugarcane flowering due to excess rain and shorter harvest windows from higher crush rates, the ISMA has said in a statement.
Planting for 2026-27 has improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka, promising ample opening stocks of 5.3 mt. The estimates draw from field visits, weather data, yields, recovery rates and crushing trends.
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