ECONOMY
US-Iran deal may bring big gains for India with macroeconomic indicators turning around
- IBJ Bureau
- Jun 16, 2026
The US-Iran tentative deal to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz could at once boost India’s economic sentiments, ease an already evident pressure on the fisc, avert an emergent balance of payments (BoP) problem and help the rupee hold against the dollar, economists note.
If supply chain normalises fast and lets prices of key commodities like oil and LNG decline, the RBI may opt for a moderate upward revision of its GDP estimate of 6.6 per cent for the current financial year, many of the experts opine.
However, they caution that things are still unfolding.
“Definitely, if the peace lasts in the region, we will have a positive impact on the trade. Mobility in the Gulf of Hormuz will also have a positive impact. Let us wait for the agreement to be signed and the details to be out,” notes Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal.
Estimates of current account deficit (CAD) for FY27 too have started changing and turning significantly lower than 2.1 per cent of the GDP estimated by the RBI.
Some have put it in the relatively benign range of 1 to 1.5 per cent.
Exchange rate of the rupee against the US dollar is hovering around 95 in the short term, with likely improvement to 92 or thereabouts in the medium term.
Fertiliser subsidy bill is estimated to double from the Union Budget estimates to Rs 3.4 lakh crore in FY27.
Normalisation of the Hormuz traffic in a few weeks would curb this escalation significantly, helping the exchequer save tens of thousands of crores of rupees.
Besides, measures to spur capital inflows by the government and the RBI, may turn around the surging BoP for FY27 and could even provide a small positive impact, some analysts point out.
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