Stringent curfews and lockdowns imposed by several States will lead to a loss of Rs 1,50,000 crore for the country, according to a report by State Bank of India (SBI). Of the total loss estimated at Rs 1.5 lakh crore, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account for 80 per cent of the loss, the research report has said. 

Maharashtra, which has put up a stringent lockdown when compared to other States, accounts for 54 per cent of the loss. “Being the economically-biggest and most-industrialised State in India, this lockdown will have huge impact on growth,” SBI has added. 

“Currently, we estimate a loss of around Rs 82,000 crore for Maharashtra, which will definitely increase if restrictions are further tightened. It may be pertinent to ask that how much lockdown will slow down the speed of infections, but for beefing up health infrastructure,” the report has noted. 

SBI has also lowered the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for 2021-22. The revised FY22 projection now stands at 10.4 per cent for real GDP (earlier 11 per cent) and 14.3 per cent for nominal GDP (earlier 15 per cent). 

According to the SBI report, migration of labour is continuing unabated. Data provided by Western Railways (for April 1-12) says that almost 4.32 lakh people have returned to States like Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Assam and Odisha from Maharashtra. Of the 4.32 lakh people, around 3.23 lakh reverse-migrated to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone. “From Central Railways, our estimate indicates that around 4.7 lakh reverse-migrated to northern and eastern States from Maharashtra,” the report adds.